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Wednesday, August 26, 2009

b t unstea y The market factors likely subdued FY2010 earning and growth possibilities in FY2011


The software sector is witnessing renewed interest among investors in the current fis­cal. Though clouds of uncertainty still pre­vail, the industry has picked up and recov­ered some lost ground in prices. A look at prices show that on the day the BSE Sensex hit the all-time high of 21 ,206.77 (10 Janu­ary 2008), the BSE IT Index was 4,325.50. On 3 August 2009, the BSE Sensex closed at 15,924.23 - down 25% from the peak. But the BSE IT Index closed at 4,001.90, repre­senting only 7.5% fall since 10 January 2008.
A few companies succeeded in single­digit volume growth to the surprise of the market, which was expecting an overall dip in volumes. More important, the compa­nies succeeded in recording margin improve­ment in the quarter ended June 2009 over the March 2009 quarter. The June 2009 quar­ter is traditionally the quarter with the least margin in all the four quarters mainly due to salary hikes that take place this quarter. Though this factor was non-existent in this quarter, the quantum of improvement came as surprise to all. The second characteristic was the stability shown in the banking fi­nancial services and insurance and the North America verticals.
Other aspects worth noting in the quar­ter were the cross-currency tailwinds and the commentary about funnel building. On the flip side, the number of deals up for bidding or decision making decreased. Rev­enue was impacted by the rupee apprecia­tion against the dollar. The rupee appreci­ated 2.8% on an average and 5.5% at closing prices. However, this was compensated to some extent by the US dollar depreciating against the euro and Great Britain pound (GBP) - the so-called cross-currency tailwind. Depreciation was about 5.5% against the euro and 8.5% against the GBP on an average.
Consolidated operating revenue of52lTi ITES companies taken together dipped 2% to Rs 30563 crore in the quarter ended June 2009 over the March 2009 quarter on rupee appreciation with benefits seen due to cross­currency tailwinds and negative-to-flattish

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